RealMoney Pro

Markets filled the opening upside gap but can't get any momentum below yesterday's Low of 133.13—low of the day is 132.95---  I still say the healthiest action would be downside acceleration!

Commodities tried bouncing but there was no real power and are starting to roll over after my morning note.

1318-1322 is the level I've been pounding the table on! Measured move is 1295-1305 from the Head &Shoulders top!

Congrats to those who stayed short AAPL- it is now below the $547 target-  I would cover some and trail some with stop at 551.75

The level I will look for a macro buy – or tactical depending on the market is $520-$526  100day $524

At this point it s a bit dangerous to short-  so I'm done playing that game!

I would love to be a scale down buyer from SPY 132.20 down to 130.50 especially if we see that today.

I guess I will have to buy some SPY if we flush and come back above $133.13 as well if my lower levels are not met.

Banks are pressured as MS is the culprit today it was first to go negative

JPM 35.76 is the pivot that guys are trading against.

P.S I think most think GREECE is gone- even if they say there want to keep them in the Euro Zone

Also the fed minutes hinted at QE3- but that's losing some support as well

Markets are bouncing today as headlines about wanting to keep Greece in the eurozone are floating around.

I think that won't happen, but for today, we are oversold enough for a bounce-type day.

We are also seeing enough participation from the beaten down commodities that were all a lot lower this morning, when we mentioned covering some shorts and looking for a tactical long. For example the low of the morning for GLD was $149.38 -- right above the major pivot from Dec. 29 of $148.27-$149.63, yesterday's pivot was a nice spot to base action on. I guess it can get a bounce if it continues to $152-ish.

Traders came in with "a little short" on the brain, and the market didn't pull in during the first 60 minutes. This typically is not the way major tradable bottoms are set, but I guess we are down enough from the highs to have shorts on their toes and some market participants dipping their toes in to buy the dip.

Google had a nice move through $617 (tight pattern; I've listed that chart many times in "Off the Charts"). The stock has been acting much better since the Facebook comparisons have been rolling in. The market cap of Google is around $200 billion. Depending where Facebook opens, it will be pretty close to that.

Apple tried to break yesterday's low but held.  I covered and will let it settle out. $551.62 is a micro level to watch today. (It is lagging a bit today.)

Amazon has a nice pattern. At some point, it might a get a same move of Google (i.e., through $230-$232). It's on my radar (probably not today).

Not much else to talk about: Lots of bounces across the board as things have been beaten.

The SPY high of the day is $134.55 -- above this, and the resistance gap starts at $135.05 and gets filled up to $135.50. Then, the major area for Bears to defend begins at S&P 500 1360-1364.

If you are uncommitted to longs today, use the morning low of $133.75 SPY as a stop. If we fail later in the day, the next point of reference is $133.13 then 131.80-132.20 has been the target.

P.S. -- I am trying some tactical longs here, but I'm not sold that yesterday's low is the low of the corrective phase. Keep the powder dry. All depends on your time frame.

Not an easy environment.

Overseas Headlines continue to control this market as seems the foot that keeps kicking this can down the road is getting a bit Fractured.  The language of Europe muddling through the mud has turned more into sinking in Quick Sand ever since leadership was voted out in France and Greece snubbed all those that bent over backwards for them. 

Technically this market has been broken and a "Sell" since May 3^rd and 4^th.   This correction has been characterized as "slow" and "methodical"  in order to get a "sustainable" Bottom you need acceleration and Fear!  Markets have been working lower and are getting closer to the Macro targets I gave high probability of reaching a few weeks back.  The McClellan Oscillator is around -50- which is oversold but not extreme like we usually see to get multiday bounce type moves- this typically happens around -70-85

 Yesterday's pivot low is the first spot to watch today 1328  ( We could get a juicy Red Dog Reversal soon that actually might last for more than a few hours)  This Strategy can be used for Multiple stocks today as lots are almost ready for a small counter-trend tactical move!

1318-1322- is the 38.2 Fib retracement  --IF we see this today- I think you are playing with fire if you don't cover shorts here if you didn't already!

1295-1305 is the Measured move of the Head & Shoulders pattern that triggered as when we closed below the 1360-1365 Neckline!

 Resistance stands at the prior pivot area of  SPX 1343-1345-  with a bigger zone at  SPX 1360-1364

 Commodities have been broken most of this year and continue to get crushed.  At some point this will be a positive for America- 

Gold/Gld is approaching the pivot low from late December- there could be some action today in that zone- $1,523- GLD 148.27 if you've been short this metal (Nice Job)  and if you take trades along the way, this could be a spot to cover or look for some type of cute long!

September 6^th was the Outside day that marked the High($1,900ish) for Gold and 2/29 was the day the intermediate Downtrend took control!  The Macro trend also seems to have broken with bigger support down around $GLD-140--  So know your time frame.  Gold hasn't had an identity this entire year!  So it's been more technical.

 COAL/solar names have been in liquidation mode as they have been the weakest groups all year.

 The Key to making money in this tape is to Know your time frame and know what your good at...  Quick tactical trades are working and staying net short for lower targets in this Corrective Phase!  Longer term guys also can't be so upset if they have a multi-year approach as we are only about 6%ish off the highs.

Markets just took out the low of the day, $133.84 on the SPY as well as the premarket low of $133.61.

The next level we've been talking about below these levels are $131.80-$132.20 (38.2% fib).

As at trader, it's hard to use stops and re visit trades -- today was day you had to do it a few times.

We tried to figure out if the oversold bounce would go hours or days -- it went for hours.

The macro levels that I put a 75% chance of reaching (i.e., 1318-1320 on the S&P 500) could be here sooner than we think. Let's see how the markets act in this area. Then the measured move of the head-and-shoulders top is 1295-1305.

This market lately has been one big trap as we've corrected, closing on lows and opening higher and closing lower and opening higher. Carefully pick your pick spots and time frame.