Gene Balas

|RSS

Gene Balas has 20 years experience in investment management and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. He most recently was director of investments at Genworth Financial Asset Management. In this role, he performed forecasts on macroeconomic conditions and determined the influences of thematic drivers to develop the appropriate investment strategy. Prior to GFAM, Balas was director of investment management and guidance at Merrill Lynch, where he advised pension funds, endowments and foundations as to appropriate investment strategy. Balas received a bachelor's degree in business administration in finance from the University of Houston and a Master of Business Administration degree from Columbia Business School.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 16, 2012 | 4:30 PM EDT

In major policy changes, it is the key element influencing what effect the Fed’s words will have on asset prices.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 15, 2012 | 9:05 AM EDT

Retail sales came in a bit soft this morning, with an increase of 0.1%, both with and without autos, following a 0.7% gain that was previously reported as a 0.8% advance. As I wrote in my Economic First Look column (link below) on Saturday, I had expected a softer showing for this morning's data and I explained the reasons why. Gasoline sales were a drag on overall sales, as those purchases fell by 0.3%, noting that this report is not adjusted for inflation, and price movements can influence the dollar volume of sales. Excluding gasoline, autos and building materials, which the government uses to calculate GDP, sales increased by 0.4%, after a 0.5% advance the month before. Motor vehicle and part sales advanced 0.5% after a 0.2% increase.

Reflecting the warmer weather in prior months and the timing of the Easter holiday, you can see how some sales were pulled forward into earlier months from April. Clothing sales, for example, fell by -0.7%, and building and garden sales fell by -1.8%. General merchandise stores sales fell by -0.1%, as sales in the department store subcategory fell by -1.4%.

Less weather-sensitive categories increased: furniture and home furnishing store sales climbed 0.7%, as did sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores. Electronics store sales inched up 0.2%, and miscellaneous store retailers climbed 0.8%. Meanwhile, sales of nonstore retailers (on-line venues) advanced 1.1%.

Thus, when looking at this report, don't assess the report by the softer headline. When considering sales patterns in prior months and the weather factor, sales are understandably a little soft. When combining the three months of February through April, sales overall increased by 2.0% from the three months before that, November 2011 through January 2012. And sales in April 2012 still increased by 6.4% from a year ago, offsetting the softness in April. Still, but most importantly, consumers will need further income gains to support more spending growth.

http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/05/12/2012/economic-first-look-p...

By

Gene Balas

 | May 14, 2012 | 5:00 PM EDT

Of the 10% rise in cumulative inflation since '07, only about one percentage point is rises in commodities.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 12, 2012 | 10:30 AM EDT

If retail sales come in weak Tuesday, these will be the reasons why.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 11, 2012 | 2:36 PM EDT

Take note of Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker's views on unemployment.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 10, 2012 | 10:30 AM EDT

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $186.8 billion and imports of $238.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $51.8 billion, up from $45.4 billion in February, revised. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase to $50 billion. March exports were $5.3 billion more than February exports of $181.5 billion. March imports were $11.7 billion more than February imports of $226.9 billion. After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit grew to $48.9 billion in March from $44.1 billion, today's report showed.

The import-price index declined 0.5% following a revised 1.5% advance in March, Labor Department data also showed. Economists projected the gauge would drop 0.2%, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Prices minus fuel climbed 0.1%.

What this means is that, with growing exports, Europe thus far has not been a drag on the U.S. economy. Exports to the Eurozone account for about 2% of our GDP. Exports, overall, are about 14% of our economy, which means that stronger growth in other regions might offset weakness in Europe, though trade links global economies in a rather interconnected way.

And since imports increased, it is hard to be too pessimistic about U.S. demand, both from consumers and businesses. With that in mind, it is early to call a slowdown in the economy as of the date of these data, but we will likely expect some slowing in growth in coming months as it appears that a warmer winter pulled some demand forward into the winter from spring.

Because the trade deficit was larger than forecast, it may prove to be a drag on GDP when those figures are released May 31. Imports are a subtraction from GDP, and a wider trade deficit would result in a lower GDP figure. As such, estimates for GDP might be ratcheted down. The prior release of GDP did not include these international trade figures, only estimates. Because the trade deficit was larger than forecast, it may prove to be a drag on GDP when those figures are released May 31. The prior release of GDP did not include these international trade figures, only estimates.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 9, 2012 | 5:30 PM EDT

Small businesses may be positive about their own prospects, but they're cautious about the broader economy. 

By

Gene Balas

 | May 7, 2012 | 4:30 PM EDT

Austerity is not the solution by itself; Greece and France need better policies to stir growth.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 5, 2012 | 10:33 AM EDT

This week’s international trade report will fill in GDP data that had been mere estimates last week.

By

Gene Balas

 | May 4, 2012 | 12:56 PM EDT

The household survey has some important uses. From it, first of all, we derive the unemployment rate. The household survey also includes people as employed in certain areas that are missed in the establishment survey, including categories like self employment, agricultural workers and household employees, which the establishment survey does not include. (Note that some people classify themselves as self-employed to avoid a perceived stigma of the term "unemployed," even if they have no current income, only the hopes of some income yet to come.) So the figures on the jobs created or lost between the two surveys aren't directly comparable. For example, a babysitter may call herself "employed" in the household survey, but she will never turn up in the establishment survey.

What I use the household survey for are the demographic data it provides, such as unemployment rates by education level and age, duration of unemployment, full time vs. part time status, number of discouraged workers and other marginally attached, the growth of the labor force, those not in the labor force, the participation rate and the employment-population rate, among other data.The statistical confidence interval for these ratios isn't as large as the jobs gained or lost figure, and these data are quite useful.

The household survey data is not revised month to month. You will not find a revised unemployment rate or a revised number of employed in the household survey, etc., the same way you find revisions to the establishment survey data of jobs gained or lost from month to month. The household survey is updated annually with current population estimates, and some data get revised at that time, but it is widely ignored by the media as it is the equivalent of a "footnote" for lack of a better term.

ECB Sinks Stocks Again

By

David Peltier

 | May 16, 2012 | 4:04 PM EDT

U.S. stocks again gave up early gains and finished Wednesday lower. And Europe was the culprit, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is reportedly...

Credit markets ugly

By

Tom Graff

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:58 PM EDT

Stocks are hovering around flat, but the credit market is trading very poorly. Bid-wanteds in cash are rolling in, especially in the go-go...

Afternoon Update

By

Scott Redler

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:50 PM EDT

Markets filled the opening upside gap but can't get any momentum below yesterday's Low of 133.13—low of the day is 132.95---  I still say the...

Something We Already Knew

By

Robert Lang

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:47 PM EDT

Roger did a great job talking about the minutes. What is fascinating is the

comments about 'ready to do something if the recovery falters...

10 Year US Treasury Yield...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:45 PM EDT

...now at 1.75%...8 basis points above the record low

Fed Minutes...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:26 PM EDT

The minutes are 25 pages long versus 9 for March and 31 for January. The

FOMC meets every 6 weeks, so some months have no meeting.

...

The Smartest Guys In The ROOM ...

By

Alan Farley

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:22 PM EDT

. have turned out to be the retail investors/traders, deciding the market

was crooked beyond repair, refusing to fund their IRA with...

Fed Minutes Out...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 2:07 PM EDT

......

Darden

By

Brian Sozzi

 | May 16, 2012 | 12:16 PM EDT

Adding it to my watch list yesterday, was feeling the action compared

to the down market. Getting some big follow through today. Looking...

Railroad Name Sets Up Nicely

By

Ken Shreve

 | May 16, 2012 | 11:59 AM EDT

Some decent movement in the railroad group today. One of the best-looking charts, in my view, belongs to Union Pacific (UNP). Good...

Midday Update

By

Scott Redler

 | May 16, 2012 | 11:08 AM EDT

Markets are bouncing today as headlines about wanting to keep Greece in the eurozone are floating around.

I think that won't happen,...

With Dougie gone today

By

Helene Meisler

 | May 16, 2012 | 10:23 AM EDT

I will take the liberty of putting the gun to my head and saying I think today the pattern changes.

why? oils and materials trying to play...

A Look at the Market

By

Ken Shreve

 | May 16, 2012 | 10:00 AM EDT

After a crummy session for stocks Tuesday, major averages are still in search of Day 1 of a rally attempt. It sure would be nice to see gains hold...

GE Capital resumes dividend

By

Bret Jensen

 | May 16, 2012 | 9:56 AM EDT

Good to see GE Capital resume its dividend to its parent. This should

provide the ammunition for GE to boost its dividend to at least 4%...

Another LNG export facility in the making

By

Glenn Williams

 | May 16, 2012 | 9:43 AM EDT

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Korea Gas, Mitsubishi and PetroChina (PTR) are

planning a large LNG export facility on the West Coast of Canada...

Home Builders are Up BIG...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 9:25 AM EDT

... in the premarket following the April construction report indicating

starts are up above expectations... TOL, LEN and HOV, are up 1, 2,...

Oil Prices Down...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 8:42 AM EDT

... Oil company shares up... I don't understand what's driving that

dynamic... All major oil companies worldwide are up with Norway's...

JCP is Down...

May 16, 2012 | 8:32 AM EDT

... another 15% in the premarket even as TGT is up 2%... although the

markets are indicating a belief that JCP's woes are unique to them I...

European Banks Rally...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 8:04 AM EDT

...1-3% on average on relief that decisions about Greece have been kicked

for a month... hopefully anyway... it is still possible that...

It was All Aligned for Abercrombie, to Do Poorly

By

Brian Sozzi

 | May 16, 2012 | 8:04 AM EDT

I was not a fan of the stock pre-earnings, and am still not a fan

having sliced and diced the numbers pre-earnings call. We have a

...

QE-Wheeeeee

By

Alan Farley

 | May 16, 2012 | 7:59 AM EDT

The 2pm FOMC minutes will be the day's focal point, with bulls hoping that

Big Ben will back up the helicopter and save the stock market....

As If the HFT in the U.S. and Europe Were Not Enough...

By

Robert Lang

 | May 16, 2012 | 7:55 AM EDT

Appears CITIC Securities in China (largest investment bank by market cap) has purchased the algorithmic platform of Progress Software. I'm not...

Greek 10 Year Yields...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 16, 2012 | 7:45 AM EDT

...back over 30% today. The financial media have focused on the Greek government turmoil. However, I will reiterate that the new French...

How Greece Might Play Out

By

Bret Jensen

 | May 16, 2012 | 7:40 AM EDT

Excellent article on the numerous impacts to Greece and Europe if the

country has to leave the European Union in Bloomberg this morning....

Worth Mentioning Again

By

Robert Lang

 | May 16, 2012 | 7:39 AM EDT

As I was reading Doug K's diary Tuesday I ran across some of the best comments

about this current market and the saga we are in, bears...

Trade by Your Rules

By

Scott Redler

 | May 16, 2012 | 7:17 AM EDT

Overseas Headlines continue to control this market as seems the foot that keeps kicking this can down the road is getting a bit...

Quick Morning Notes

By

Brian Sozzi

 | May 16, 2012 | 6:33 AM EDT

It seems as if only a couple of days ago we were toying with 1340 on

the S&P 500.=A0 Now, the S&P 500 has closed below prior 1340...

No surprise on JCP if you followed me on Real Money Pro in January

By

Paul Price

 | May 15, 2012 | 6:43 PM EDT

You could have profited from the JCP debacle if you read my Jan. 27, 2012

article...

_Not Buying JC Penney's Optimism_

...

Heart of Down Wave

By

Avi Gilburt

 | May 15, 2012 | 6:08 PM EDT

By Avi Gilburt

These are the types of trade set ups we like to see. Today, we were able to narrow down a short trade set up to within one...

JC Penneys Earnings Disaster

By

Alan Farley

 | May 15, 2012 | 4:27 PM EDT

20% year over year revenue decline. Golden boy CEO Johnson could be gone in

a year at this rate. Trading at 29.40, down 4 from the close...

JCP is Getting Crushed...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 15, 2012 | 4:22 PM EDT

...in the after market on a bad earnings report

Greece's Long Shadow

By

David Peltier

 | May 15, 2012 | 4:07 PM EDT

It was a volatile day for U.S. stocks, which ended Tuesday lower. The debt crisis in Greece overshadowed strong economic headlines at home and in...

Late-Day Update

By

Scott Redler

 | May 15, 2012 | 3:40 PM EDT

Markets just took out the low of the day, $133.84 on the SPY as well as the premarket low of $133.61.

The next level we've been talking...

Oil Still Driving the Bus

By

Robert Lang

 | May 15, 2012 | 1:42 PM EDT

It seems every tick down for the last two weeks in oil means a drop from

stocks. The correlation is getting much stronger now, nearly...

Big Move by Tecumseh

By

Jonathan Heller

 | May 15, 2012 | 12:13 PM EDT

TECUA, TECUB up more than 60% today; 13D filed by Roumell Asset Management,

which now owns 21.6% of Class A shares, 12.9% of Class B shares...

That down-draft

By

Helene Meisler

 | May 15, 2012 | 11:37 AM EDT

This surprised me since it crushed the commodity stocks which are already so down and out. By a fraction, there were fewer new lows today than...

Martin Luther and the Eurzone

By

Kamal Khan

 | May 15, 2012 | 11:30 AM EDT

Great post about religious doctrine predicting currency union. Tip of the hat to @theartofthexpat for pointing out.

...

Headline-Driven Action

By

Scott Redler

 | May 15, 2012 | 10:36 AM EDT

Very sloppy trading, as we are driven by every headline out of Greece!

Some longs are working, and some short. Very mixed.

The...

Cerner Is Acting Well

By

Ken Shreve

 | May 15, 2012 | 10:20 AM EDT

One of my favorite health care names continues to be Cerner (CERN). The health care information technology firm caters to...

A Senator's take on EPA regulations

By

Glenn Williams

 | May 15, 2012 | 9:18 AM EDT

Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee discussed new and pending EPA rules at

a breakfast conference with Politico this morning. He believes...

Resmed [RMD] - Now #1 ranked by Zacks

By

Paul Price

 | May 15, 2012 | 9:05 AM EDT

Sleep apnea treatment company Resmed [RMD] was featured in my Dec. 13, 2011

Real Money Pro article when the shares were trading for $25....

Retail Sales

By

Gene Balas

 | May 15, 2012 | 9:05 AM EDT

Retail sales came in a bit soft this morning, with an increase of 0.1%, both with and without autos, following a 0.7% gain that was previously...

Europeans Loving Their Bargains

By

Brian Sozzi

 | May 15, 2012 | 9:04 AM EDT

The European division for TJ Maxx (TJX) led the company in terms of

same-store sales at 13% growth. Easy year earlier comparison or not...

Can the Market Hold Early-Morning Gains?

By

Scott Redler

 | May 15, 2012 | 8:08 AM EDT

Markets don't to want to give the "easy set up"  Most traders were hoping for a Gap down to buy, and some for a gap down to...

Banks...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 15, 2012 | 8:07 AM EDT

US banks are up across the board in pre-market activity by about 1%.

Italian, French and UK banks are down in London and the European...

Positive survey results from corporate market could bode well for overall market

May 15, 2012 | 8:02 AM EDT

A new Amex survey out shows corporations are migrating from a cash hoarding

stance to a more agressive strategy of using funds for...

China...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 15, 2012 | 7:58 AM EDT

Foreign Direct Investment in China has decreased for a 6 month in a row,

through April. The net decline is attributable however almost...

Dick's Sporting Goods Goes on the Shopping List

By

Brian Sozzi

 | May 15, 2012 | 7:47 AM EDT

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) is a best of best in breed stock to be put

(or traced over) on a list of names to return to once the market...

Sovereigns Yields Higher...

By

Roger Arnold

 | May 15, 2012 | 7:34 AM EDT

... almost everywhere... very interesting... 10 year yields:

First Tier Countries:

US, Germany and Japan - up by 3,3, and 1 basis...

Where I See the Letdown in Home Depot Numbers

By

Brian Sozzi

 | May 15, 2012 | 7:11 AM EDT

Score another one for Mr. Market who bid down Home Depot (HD) shares

ahead of the quarter. Despite the pullback, there are pockets of...

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.