Doug Kass

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Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc.Expand

Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $6 billion investment partnership. Before that he was executive senior vice president and director of institutional equities of First Albany Corporation and JW Charles/CSG. He also was a General Partner of Glickenhaus & Co., and held various positions with Putnam Management and Kidder, Peabody. Kass received his bachelor's from Alfred University, and received a master's of business administration in finance from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in 1972. He co-authored "Citibank: The Ralph Nader Report" with Nader and the Center for the Study of Responsive Law and currently serves as a guest host on CNBC's "Squawk Box."Collapse

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Doug Kass

 | Jul 6, 2015 | 8:44 AM EDT
I expect rates to trend lower over the short term. The 10-year U.S. note yields 2.31% this morning; I expect the 2.50% peak of a few weeks ago to hold and for rates to move towards 2.10% to 2.20%. Life insurers' shares typically perform poorly when rates are declining, as reinvestment rates are challenged. Events in Greece likely will slow down the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate rise and might lead to slowing European economic growth. LNC's share price has approached the company's private market value.
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 6, 2015 | 8:31 AM EDT
I continue to hold to a variant view on the markets (negative) and on individual groups. I would be emphasizing longs in bond-equivalent areas (e.g.,…
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 6, 2015 | 7:58 AM EDT
By the time you read this note I'm sure you've already read a ton of pieces with everyone pontificating on what the Greek vote now means. Thus,…
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 6, 2015 | 7:38 AM EDT
A redenomination of Greece's currency would have something of a domino effect on the sovereign debt of Italy, Spain and other weak countries in the eurozone. Why would traders and investors want to trade or own Italian or Spanish debt if these countries, too, might ultimately exit the EU and devalue their currencies? An exit of Greece would raise the spectre that more extreme political parties in the weaker peripheral countries might gain momentum."  -- Doug's Daily Diary (May 27), "Going Against the Grain on Greece" The market's initial reaction last night was for a 35-handle drop in S&P futures. But for now we see only a "Touch of Red" as futures have regained about two-thirds of their loss this morning in a strong display of resiliency and in the view that Greece is simply a "sideshow" -- much like the reaction to previous macroeconomic threats over the last several years. While the Six-Year Bull Market in Stocks will "Not Fade Away" easily, it remains my view that over the last few months markets have been in the process of making a broadening and important top. Markets are, by most measures, in fact teetering. Indeed, the Bull Market is already over if you own the WRONG stocks.  Technically, leadership is narrowing -- a likely prelude to second-half downside volatility. Another technical issue that is signaling caution is the S&P's long-term momentum chart. The chart below covers the last two decades and plots the monthly S&P Index along with two momentum indicators at the bottom.  At the tops in 2000 and 2007-2008, both momentum oscillators had negative moving average crossings for the first time as a top was being formed. Today we have a similar pattern, with modest crossings in each momentum indicator -- thus my expectation of a broadening top. And with Goldman Sachs taking down 2015 S&P profits forecasts to only $114 per share from $122 per share (they and others were at $135 per share a year ago), the global fundamentals aren't so hot, either.     "The Smart People are Selling" and China is like Humpty Dumpty sitting on a wall. And lest we forget "Short in May and Go Away." I expect rising volatility and lower stock prices ahead, and I remain defensive in a market that seems to be finally wavering in price and appears to be on a ledge of sorts. With The Grateful Dead's final tour complete and the Six-Year Bull Market in Stocks in jeopardy, two eras might now be over.
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 5, 2015 | 5:40 PM EDT
The Second Level of Hell "You have come to a place mute of all light, where the wind bellows as the sea does in a tempest. This is the realm where...
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 3, 2015 | 7:09 AM EDT
"Ain't no time to hate, barely time to wait, Wo, oh, what I want to know, where does the time go?" Enjoy July 4th with your families! https://www....
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 2, 2015 | 3:01 PM EDT
The market has flatlined all day after the initial drop in the late morning. As I have expected for several days, the bank group is starting to sell off. I expect this to continue and I am a buyer down 5% or so -- and intend to replace last week's sales. Most groups are moving fractionally. Bonds are uninspiring -- little action there, either. Volume will come to a crawl now toward the market close. I moved from SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) medium size to small size, taking in the earlier-in-the-week shorts for a quick profit.
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 2, 2015 | 2:57 PM EDT
Today's Trade: I am taking in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) shorts I made on Tuesday and Wednesday for a $1 gain (at under…
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 2, 2015 | 1:46 PM EDT
A nice summary of the important macroeconomic events from Peter Boockvar: Positives: 1) The June ISM manufacturing index was…
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Doug Kass

 | Jul 2, 2015 | 1:31 PM EDT
More from Sir Arthur Cashin: Markets turn thinner after Europe's close as some apparently use that for an excuse for early getaway.…

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