Odds of a Cliff Dive Are Rising

My partners and I have reduced our odds of avoiding (before year's end) the spending-cut and tax-hike triggers associated with the "fiscal cliff" from 70% to 60%.

After multiple conversations with House of Representative leadership sources, senators and budget experts in Washington, we still expect a narrow compromise from a so-far-unyielding White House. But large segments on both sides seem increasingly willing to go over the cliff. It wouldn't take much miscalculation from either party to take us there. Nor would it be the end of the world, as most affected funding levels, tax rates and expiring tax and benefit provisions might be fully or partially restored in early 2013 -- albeit amid at least some economic and market displacement. Meanwhile, the "quality" and scope of any last-minute fix might also disappoint....896 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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