An Avoidance Strategy

It seems like market-related chatter changes on a daily basis, from taper fears to a celebration of what portfolio manager Louis Navellier has called "QE to Infinity." Bad is the new good, and good is OK as well -- unless it's too good, and then it's bad. Traders are taking positions based on every whiff of Fed-speak or any economic headline, making dire or rosy projections that change with lightning speed. Amid all this, stocks keep going up regardless of silly little things like revenue, profit or asset value. It is, at best, a confusing time to be an investor.

I have no idea what the market will do over the next few days, weeks or months. I find myself in the camp with folks like Sam Zell, Seth Klarman and others who believe we are way ahead of fundamentals and economics, but I have no clue when the market will react to that fact. Conditions do not necessarily have to change by way of lower stock prices, after all. As unlikely as it seems, the equation could be corrected by improved fundamentals and a stronger economy. If you ever have to choose between risking your capital on a coin flip or my short-term market forecast, go with the coin. The odds will be substantially better....460 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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