Leave BlackBerry on the Vine

I think the most important question regarding BlackBerry (BBRY) is can the company say anything today that will help Apple (AAPL)? I doubt it. If BBRY reports strong numbers, then the market will likely interpret that as stealing some of AAPL's thunder. If it reports weaker-than-expected numbers, then it will be seen as an overall smartphone dynamic of weakness. Maybe we'll find out later that Tim Cook has been buying gold overseas with Apple's cash.

BlackBerry (BBRY) -- Daily Source: StockCharts.com View Chart » View in New Window »

BBRY is pricing in around $1.65 via the options market, but a $1.20 to $1.30 move appears more likely to me. BBRY reminds me of the Oracle (ORCL) setup in which a follow-through trade is likely the best play. A move above $16 or below $13.50 should find some strong momentum -- especially among the 30%-plus short interest in the group. There is no way I would want to be short shares outright with those numbers; however, there isn't enough in the chart that makes me want to be long either....127 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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