Beyond Sentiment Extremes

Coming into 2012, my baseline forecast was for an early-year global equity rally that would correct in late winter, followed by a rally back in U.S. equities to those established highs (or slightly higher highs) in May. Given the U.S. election-year cycle and the ongoing financial crisis in Europe, I thought it was reasonable to expect another sharp summer selloff across the globe, followed by a rally into the October election and eventually year-end.

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