An Earnings Report Card

I track the earnings surprise experience of the S&P 500 on a regular basis, in order to get a sense of where earnings are coming in relative to expectations.

My algorithm incorporates a twist that I think better reflects true expectations: I look at the earnings per share estimate two weeks before the end of the quarter, rather than on the day of the earnings report. The consensus can change meaningfully in the weeks after the books are closed, either due to analyst diligence or company manipulation, which can complicate the analysis....280 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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