What About Interest Rates?

The April Nonfarm payrolls report showed employment gains of just 115,000, the second straight month of sub-200,000 employment gains. The household survey showed outright losses of 169,000, following losses of 31,000 last month. I have a few observations.

First, it is much worse to see deceleration than persistent mediocrity. That is because employment, like many elements of the macroeconomy, has a discernable trend component. This is one reason why the debate over the weather effect matters: If you believe that weather overstated job gains in the winter, then these last two mediocre job reports aren't too distressing. It is just a continuation of the same trend. If however, you think the weather wasn't a major factor, then what you have is a clear deceleration from the December-February pace....637 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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