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As always, I spent a fair amount of time this week catching up with friends and associates around the country to talk markets and economics. My wife usually points out that we also spend an extraordinary amount of time discussing baseball, books and other unimportant subjects while sitting on the couch swilling coffee. Being naturally upbeat, I prefer to focus on the productive parts of the endeavor. One thing that struck me as I caught up with my network of traders and investors is that the complacency that pervades most market participants does not seem to apply to my older, more grizzled friends. They are talking about things like Europe and rising interest rates again. Most are not net short, but they are trimming longs and raising cash.

I do not make market predictions and I rarely pay attention to anyone else's directional call. I cannot imagine sitting around studying charts, short-term price movements and various other entrails and indicators for a clue of what is going to happen in the stock market. I track a couple of indicators and they all seem to have rolled down from overbought levels as the market has weakened in the past few weeks. Combined with my Nervous Old Guy Indicator, I can see that there's a good chance stock prices continue to move lower over the next several weeks....604 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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