An Energetic Opportunity

Materials stocks, commodities, oil -- even the Los Angeles Dodgers -- have been hammered in the past week or so. Crude oil futures have fallen on concerns over slowing global growth and over-supply. It seems the always accurate, non-biased folks at the International Money Fund have lowered their global growth forecasts to reflect what everyone else already knew, and oil traders do not like the news. Oil futures are down again today and I am starting to hear $60 and even $50 a barrel.

Over the years, I have discovered a secret weapon for evaluating oil prices. I am no better at predicting the direction of commodity markets than I am at calling stock prices, but I found someone who is. The Saudi Arabian minister of petroleum and mineral resources is eerily accurate at evaluating the market and over the years. I find that even if there is a temporary disconnect, prices usually find the level the minister thinks is fair. The current minister, Ali al-Naimi, recently said that he thought $100 a barrel was a fair price. An advisor to the minister said that even though forecasts were lowered recently, demand would still grow by more than a million barrels a day. Prices may fall but will come back in line with the Saudi forecast and preferred price level eventually....540 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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