Gold's Troubles May Linger

Like many people I've been watching gold plunge this morning, down nearly $100 at one point, with very little respite in the selling. At the same time I'm starting to see more and more bearish commentary in articles and on blogs all over the Internet.

There are even some conspiracy theories popping up that are blaming the Federal Government and Bernanke (of course) for crashing the price. (Bernanke and the Feds were also the "reason" for gold's rise as well.) None of this could have anything to do with the fundamentals, right?
As a contrarian, all this negativity is almost starting to make me bullish. I am still holding off on any purchases, however, because I think that despite the pounding there's still plenty more downside for the metal. I've been trading commodities long enough to know that their behavior is cyclical in nature -- they exhibit strong "mean reversion" tendencies. The only thing that varies from is the length of the cycle. It looks like gold and other commodities, however, are definitely reverting to their mean.

One way to analyze where we are in this cycle is to consider the average cost of production in the gold industry. That's a level that is likely to be tested or even surpassed (on the downside) before one can even consider a bottom. It is well known that the large miners like Newmont (NEM), Barrick (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Agnico-Eagle (AEM) and some other companies have production costs ranging anywhere from $1400 per ounce on the high side down to $1,000 per ounce on the low side. Smaller mines may have a lower cost basis, but their output remains below the big players....275 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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