An Important Juncture for Trading

Several weeks ago I referenced a few markets that I was looking to for confirmation of the recent upswing in global equity prices. After false starts to the year in 2010 and 2011, I wanted to be cautious and not to chase early strength in 2012 -- especially since I started the year very light in equities due to the ongoing debt crisis in Europe. Specifically, I wanted to see a breakout in both U.S. Treasury 10-year yields and the Thompson Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodity Excess Return Index to confirm economic expansion, especially in the U.S. Without such confirmation, I remain convinced that the rally was more a Pavlovian response to Central Bank machinations, rendering them subject to rapid rejection as they had been in the past.

Notwithstanding the recent allure of U.S. government bonds relating to the extreme volatility now witnessed in European debt markets, both short and long term U.S. interest rates are holding in very tight ranges. Regardless of the recent strength exhibited in domestic economic data, U.S. rates remain range-bound. Of course, weaker data are not necessarily met with a rousing bond rally either. Over the past several weeks, yields have been pinned very closely to the 2% level. Long-time bond traders cannot be faulted for assuming that "a fix" is in....528 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.

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