Long-Term Thinking
What can I say about the broader market that hasn't already been said? It has become death by a thousand paper cuts for bears and even those sitting on the sidelines. I've reduced some positions in longer-term and income portfolios, and for the most part, hindsight would say I am wrong. Most have continued higher. That is the nature of the beast. You don't want to miss out, but you don't want to get caught chasing. This is the time when I start to favor slightly in-the-money calls or shorting put spreads to buy call spreads to gain long exposure.
Agilent (A) Source: StockCharts.com View Chart » View in New Window »Agilent (A) is a company I like very much for the long term and as a core holding. Still, there's a difference between long and short term. Long-term validation for me is more about fundamentals, while trading and short-term are about technicals and dislocation. The case with Agilent is very similar to Wednesday's scenario with Cisco Systems (CSCO). I have concerns about Agilent's chart. The stock has been running sideways, but the relative strength indicator and stochastics have both been declining. I always hesitate on a holding when these bearish divergences pop up in front of earnings. I don't see a ton of downside potential on A, but the potential for a move lower into the $42-$43 area is very real. Normally, I would say I am a buyer of the February $44-$42 put spreads around $0.43, however, I prefer to buy 1.5x as many February $44-$43 puts here for $0.29....144 more words left in this article. To read them, just click below and try Real Money FREE for 14 days.
There’s no substitute for a trading floor to get great ideas, so Jim Cramer created a better one at Real Money and blogs there exclusively. We then added legendary hedge fund manager, Doug Kass, with his exclusive Daily Diary and best investing ideas. Staffed with more than 4 dozen investing pros, money managers, journalists and analysts, Real Money Pro gives you a flood of opinions, analysis and actionable trading advice found nowhere else, and allows you to interact directly with each expert.
Already a Subscriber? Please login.
